Last updated: 20 October 2021

Here is detailed information on current evidence for direct and indirect health impacts, and social and economic impacts, of COVID-19.

You can find explanatory detail on the evidence for each impact, the data sources and (where applicable) methodology for this evidence, and any caveats that should be taken into account when interpreting or using these figures.

You can also find a list of key dates on the homepage.

## 1. Direct health impacts

### R number

As per data published on 14 October the latest R value in Scotland was estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.0.

This week's estimated R value was between 0.8 and 1.0. The lower limit has increased since last week. R is an indicator that lags by two to three weeks and therefore should not be expected to reflect recent fluctuations.

For the number of infectious people to fall we need to keep the R number consistently below 1. A sustained increase above 1 indicates exponential growth in the number of cases, leading to increased hospitalisations and deaths, and causing very significant harm to Scotland’s health, society and economy should prevalence be at an elevated level.

This is why it is important to remain vigilant and respond quickly to any outbreaks and increases in cases. The R number can be thought of as the average number of people that each infected person passes the virus on to.

Source: Scottish Government

Methodology: SAGE Consensus

### New infections

As per data published on 14 October COVID-19 incidence in Scotland was estimated to be between 94 and 142 new daily infections per 100,000 people.

This week's estimated COVID-19 incidence of between 94 and 142 new daily infections per 100,000 people equates to between 5,100 and 7,800 people becoming infected each day in Scotland. The lower and upper limits have decreased since last week.

This indicator was not available before 12 August 2020.

The various groups which report to the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) use different sources of data in their models to produce estimates of incidence. The figures here show SPI-M’s consensus view across these methods.

Source: Scottish Government

Methodology: SPI-M Consensus

## Warning: Ignoring 1 observations

### Cases

Daily COVID-19 cases have fluctuated in the last week. Average weekly cases peaked on 6 September and decreased to 2,491 average reported cases per day on 17 October.

There were over 200 7-day average cases of COVID-19 in April 2020, during the first lockdown. Cases then declined and by early July 2020 there were fewer than 10 7-day average cases, even in the context of increased testing. Cases then rose, reaching over 1,452 7-day average cases on 26 October 2020. Regional restrictions were introduced on 9 October 2020. 7-day average cases then decreased to 749 on 19 December 2020. Average daily cases then increased rapidly to 2,323 cases on 7 January 2021. The second lockdown began on 5 January 2021. Cases then decreased, despite fluctuations since mid-February. From early May, 7-day average cases increased to a peak of 3,454 cases on 4 July. Average daily cases then decreased to 1,142 on 4 August 2021. 7-day average cases then increased to a peak of 6,414 on 6 September 2021 and have since decreased to 2,491 on 17 October 2021. The chart shows the cases by the date they were reported.

The World Health Organisation recommends looking at several indicators when considering whether the epidemic is controlled. This data is needed to keep track of new positive cases and to monitor the progression and impact of the virus in Scotland.

These figures will be an underestimate of the number of cases. Not everyone with COVID-19 will display symptoms and not all those with symptoms will be tested.

While the number of positive cases is higher in the second and third peaks than in the April 2020 peak, a greater number of tests are now being completed as we now have additional facilities for sampling and testing. In early January 2021 an average of over 150,000 tests have been completed per week, compared to 10,000 to 20,000 tests per week in April 2020. In addition, NHS testing capacity has increased significantly with the opening of 2 of the 3 regional testing hubs. Scotland now has capacity to process over 65,000 samples per day as committed to in the Testing Strategy.

The ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey now indicates an estimated 1 in 80 would have tested positive for coronavirus in Scotland in the latest week period 3 - 9 October 2021. This equates to around 66,000 people.

Source: SG open data platform

Methodology: Testing data is sourced from Public Health Scotland (PHS). Numbers for each day reflect activity within the 24-hour period from midnight to midnight the previous day.

Until 27 July 2021, Numbers for each day reflected activity within the 24-hour period from 5:15am the previous day to 5:15am.

Up until 14 June 2020 these figures were based on tests carried out through NHS Scotland labs only. From 15 June 2020 they also include numbers of people tested through the UK Government (UKG) testing programme, which were not previously available to Scottish Government. This caused a jump in the cumulative data series when the backlog was reported on 15 June.

### Deaths

Last week there were 139 deaths involving COVID-19, up by 8 on the previous week.

Deaths involving COVID-19 have increased from the previous week, with 139 deaths involving COVID-19 last week.

The World Health Organisation recommends looking at several indicators when considering whether the epidemic is controlled. One of these is a decline in the number of deaths among confirmed and probable cases at least for the last 3 weeks.

As of 17 October 2021, there have been a total of 11,406 deaths registered where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. The first mention of COVID-19 in a registered death certificate was the week beginning 16 March 2020. In the most recent week (4 October to 10 October 2021), there were 139 deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. 108 deaths took place in a hospital, 11 at home or in a non-institutional setting and 19 in care homes.

Source: National Records of Scotland

Methodology: The figures in this publication focus on deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate (either as a confirmed or suspected cause of death).

COVID-19 weekly average hospital admissions reached a peak of 161 on the 13 September and have decreased since then.

The average number of COVID-19 hospital admissions per day is currently lower than the first peak of over 180 in the first week of April 2020 and the second peak of over 120 in October 2020. Hospital admissions decreased throughout November and remained relatively stable throughout December. From 25 December 2020 to 12 January 2021, admissions increased sharply. Average daily COVID-19 hospital admissions then decreased to a low of 8 in the week to 4 May 2021. Admissions increased to an average of 89 per day in the week to 13 July 2021 then decreased to an average of 40 in the week to 17 August. They then increased to an average of 161 in the week ending 13 September. Admissions since then decreased to an average of 90 in the week ending 8 October.

COVID-19 hospital admission numbers give an indication of the impacts the virus is having on the NHS. This is an important measure for tracking the progress of the virus and helps to assess ongoing COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 pressures on the NHS.

Methodology: Data from Public Health Scotland. Additional breakdowns (e.g. by Health Board) are available via the referenced source.

## 2. Indirect health impacts

### A&E attendances

A&E attendances have decreased in the last month.

The number of A&E attendances decreased to 40% of normal pre-COVID-19 levels in the week ending 29 March 2020. A&E attendances then increased to around 85% of normal levels throughout August and September. From mid September, A&E attendances decreased to just over 60% of normal levels at the start of February. A&E attendances then increased to 99% of normal levels in the week ending 22 August 2021 and have since decreased to 93% of normal levels in the week ending 26 September 2021.

A&E attendance numbers give an indication of the wider impacts COVID-19 is having across the NHS.

The 'NHS is Open' campaign was launched on 24 April to encourage members of the public not to delay seeking medical advice.

Source: Public Health Scotland

Methodology: Does not include attendances to Minor Injury Units. Data from Public Health Scotland. Additional breakdowns (e.g. by Health Board) are available via the referenced source. From October, this data will be updated once per month.

### Excess deaths

Deaths are 23% above average levels for this time of year.

Deaths were above average in week 41, and have been above average for each of the last 21 weeks.

Excess deaths are the total number of deaths registered in a week minus the average number of deaths registered in the same week over the previous five years. Measuring excess deaths allows us to track seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats. Excess deaths include deaths caused by COVID-19 and those resulting from other causes. In this chart, excess deaths are shown by the difference between the grey line, which shows the weekly average for deaths over the previous 5 years (2015 – 2019), and the blue line showing total deaths in 2020 and 2021.

The 2015-2019 average will continue to be used to measure excess deaths in 2021 as using the 2016-2020 average will be inflated by the high number of deaths in 2020. The other blue line on this chart is labelled ‘COVID-19 deaths’ - this shows weekly totals for the number of COVID-19 deaths. Presenting this alongside ‘total deaths’ for the same week shows the extent to which COVID-19 deaths have contributed to the number of excess deaths, and the extent to which the number of excess deaths may be attributable to other causes or indirectly caused by COVID-19. In the week ending 26 April 2020, there were 663 COVID-19 deaths that contributed to an overall total of 1,836 deaths. The 5 year weekly average tells us that we would typically expect 1,087 deaths in that week – there is a difference (or ‘excess’) of 749, of which 663 were related to COVID-19.

Source: National Records of Scotland

Methodology: Excess deaths are the total number of deaths registered in a week in 2020 and 2021 minus the average number of deaths registered in the same week over the period 2015 to 2019.

Emergency and planned hospital admissions have fluctuated throughout September

The number of emergency admissions dropped to 60% of normal pre-COVID-19 levels in the week ending 29 March 2020. Emergency admissions then increased to a peak of 95% of normal levels in the week ending 23 August. Emergency admissions then decreased to around 80% of normal levels at the end of January. Emergency admissions then increased slightly to 94% of normal levels at the end of April, they have since fluctuated between 95% and 102% of normal levels. In the week ending 26 September 2021, emergency admissions were at 91% of normal levels.

The number of planned hospital admissions dropped to 27% of normal pre-COVID-19 levels in the week ending 19 April 2020. The number of planned admissions increased after that and remained around 70% to 80% of normal levels from September to late December. The subsequent drop in planned admissions over the festive period was in line with previous years. Planned hospital admissions then decreased to under 60% of normal levels from late January to early February. They have since fluctuated between 60% and 81% of normal levels. In the week ending 26 September 2021, planned admissions were at 68% of normal levels.

Hospital admission numbers give an indication of the wider impacts COVID-19 is having across the NHS. All elective procedures were suspended when lockdown began. The 'NHS is Open' campaign was launched on 24 April to encourage members of the public not to delay seeking medical advice.

Public Health Scotland publishes a dashboard which presents more information on the wider impacts COVID-19 is having on the health care system. It provides information on hospital admissions, unscheduled care and volume of calls to NHS24. You can view the data presented by age, sex, deprivation quintile, specialty, elective versus emergency and by geographical location.

Methodology: Data from Public Health Scotland. Additional breakdowns (e.g. by Health Board) are available via the referenced source. From October, this data will be updated once per month.

### People avoiding contacting GPs

A substantial minority are reluctant to contact a GP practice at the moment for immediate non-COVID-19 health concerns.

The proportion of people who agree that they would avoid contacting a GP practice at the moment for immediate non-COVID-19 health concerns is 21%.

There has been a reluctance from people to seek non-COVID-19 healthcare treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence suggests that since the end of October between 21-33% of people agreed or strongly agreed that they would avoid contacting a GP practice at the moment even if they had an immediate medical concern (not related to Coronavirus). Responses were broadly similar across different groups of the population.

Source: YouGov

Methodology: Web panel survey. Total sample size is c. 1000 adults each week. Fieldwork undertaken from 21-23 April onwards, weekly. This question was included from 27-28 October, replacing a previous question asking whether people would avoid the GP/hospital. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+).

## 3. Societal impacts

### Education

The percentage of school openings with pupils not in school because of COVID-19 related reasons has decreased since 10 September and has levelled off over the week to 8 October.

Provisional figures for Wednesday 8 October show that 84.2% of school openings had pupils attending, either physically or from home. The percentage of school openings with pupils absent for non-COVID-19 reasons was 13.5% and for COVID-19 related reasons this was 2.3%. Scottish Government Education Analytical Services publishes a dashboard which contains additional information on school attendance and absence.

In response to the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, the Scottish Government asked education and childcare settings to re-open only for vulnerable children and children of key workers following the Christmas break.

From Monday 22 February all children in P1-P3 in mainstream and special schools were to return to school. Some Senior Phase (S4-S6) pupils were also due to return to school on a part-time basis to attend practical lessons.

From Monday 15 March all children in Primary school were to return to school, with all Secondary pupils returning on a part-time basis from this date. Data shown on the graph for this period relate to Primary school pupils only.

From Monday 12 April all pupils returned to school on a full-time basis.

After the summer holiday, the majority of children and young people had returned to full time education by the week ending 20th August.

Methodology: This information is provisional and currently based on Local Authority schools only (primary, secondary and special schools). This information is based on Local Authority schools only (primary, secondary and special schools). Figures for the most recent week are provisional. Figures for previous weeks are final.

### Crisis grants

Scottish Welfare Fund crisis grant applications were 5% higher in July 2021 than in July 2020

The Scottish Welfare Fund is administered by local authorities. Crisis grants aim to help people who are in crisis because of a disaster or an emergency.

Since March 2020 the impacts of COVID-19 have affected Crisis Grant application numbers. Applications increased rapidly in March and peaked in April 2020. After falling between May and July, applications increased again between August and October 2020. It is likely increases were due to financial hardship resulting from COVID-19. 2021 has seen declines from a peak in January, but a further resurgence of applications occurred in June, which is now declining again. There were 3% more Crisis Grant applications in July 2021, compared to July 2020.

Source: Scottish Government

Methodology: Figures are collected from local authorities at the end of each month and combined to Scotland level.

### Crime

Recorded crime in August 2021 was lower than both August 2019 and August 2020.

Police recorded crime was 4% lower in August 2021 than the same month of 2020 (when pandemic restrictions were in place) and 8% lower than August 2019 (for which there was no pandemic or restrictions on movement).

Changes in police recorded crime is one indicator of the impact that the COVID-19 restrictions are having across society. Generally across the pandemic recorded crime has been lower than the year prior (2019-20). Some caution is advised before attributing all differences to COVID-19. Longer term trends, which existed before the pandemic, may remain a factor in some types of offending recorded by the police.

Methodology: The total figure for recorded crime excludes the new crimes being recorded under the recently enacted coronavirus legislation. See the source publication for more information.

### Loneliness

Around half of people report feeling lonely.

In Ipsos MORI surveys carried out between May and July 2020 between 53-59% felt lonely some/most/almost all or all of the time. This indicator is now measured by YouGov surveys with the same question. Between July and the present it has been between 44% and 54%. It is now 45%.

The lockdown period has been associated with higher than usual levels of reported loneliness. The majority of people report feeling lonely at least some of the time in the previous week. This persisted even when restrictions on social gatherings were eased slightly. People aged 18-44 are more likely to have felt lonely at least some of the time than those aged 45+.

Source: YouGov

Methodology: Web panel survey. Total sample size is c. 1000 adults each week. Fieldwork undertaken from 28 July onwards, weekly. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+) in terms of age, gender, social class, region and level of education . Previous trends on this measure were taken from Ipsos Mori surveys, which had a smaller sample size (c500-650) and were representative of Scottish adults (aged 16-74) in terms of age and gender. In July the questions were transferred to a YouGov survey to consolidate our data collection across Scottish Government teams and research needs.

### Trust in Scottish Government

There are consistently high levels of trust in the Scottish Government.

Since mid-May, the proportion of people who said they trusted the Scottish Government to work in Scotland’s best interests, in Ipsos MORI surveys was between 73% and 79%. This is now measured by YouGov survey using the same question and with a similar measure, and was 66% at the last wave. During the pre-election period this question is not asked.

Evidence suggests consistently high levels of trust in the Scottish Government. Since mid-May, around two thirds to four fifths of people have said they trust the Scottish Government to work in Scotland’s best interests. Women are more likely (by 10% ) than men to say they trust the Scottish Government a great deal/quite a lot to work in Scotland’s best interests.

Source: YouGov

Methodology: Web panel survey. Total sample size is c. 1000 adults each week. Fieldwork undertaken from 28 July onwards, weekly. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+) in terms of age, gender, social class, region and level of education . Previous trends on this measure were taken from Ipsos Mori surveys, which had a smaller sample size (c500-650) and were representative of Scottish adults (aged 16-74) in terms of age and gender. In July the questions were transferred to a YouGov survey to consolidate our data collection across Scottish Government teams and research needs.

### Perceived threat to jobs

1 in 5 employees are worried about the threat COVID-19 poses to their job.

People who are employed were asked how worried they are about the impact of COVID-19 on their job. 19% report a perceived 'high' or 'very high' threat to their job.

The measures introduced to control the spread of COVID-19 have involved the shutdown of many parts of the economy. Recent waves of data collection show that a fifth perceive a 'high' or 'very high' threat to their job.

Source: YouGov

Methodology: Web panel survey. Total sample size is c. 1000 adults each week. Fieldwork undertaken from 14 July onwards, weekly. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+) in terms of age, gender, social class, region and level of education . We previously presented analysis on a similar measure from a different source. Since the sources are not directly comparable we are only showing newer data from YouGov.

### Transport

The number of people saying they are concerned about people contracting or spreading COVID-19 on public transport remains high.

There has been a consistently high number of people saying they are 'very' or 'fairly' concerned about people contracting or spreading COVID-19 on public transport. This peaked during the inital lockdown period in 2020 at 82%. At the most recent measure, collected during in late May/early June 2021, 70% of people agreed with this.

Methodology: Telephone survey

## 4. Economic impacts

### Monthly Business Turnover Index (MBTI)

Business turnover in March is at a similar level to the same month last year.

All Industries

Manufacturing and Services

Services industries

In March, Scotland's business turnover index was 49.7. This indicates that, on balance, turnover is at a similar level in real terms to March 2020.

It should be noted that this will still be lower than pre-pandemic levels in February 2020, due to the sharp drop that occurred in March 2020 when the first lockdown began.

Source: Scottish Government

Methodology: The Monthly Business Turnover Index is an experimental statistics release. It is based on data from the ONS Monthly Business Survey and Retail Sales Inquiry. It reports the net balance of firms reporting increasing or decreasing turnover, in real terms, compared to 12 months ago. Values below 50 indicate that more companies are showing decreased turnover than increased turnover.

### Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Scotland's GDP grew 0.9% in June.

Scotland's GDP grew 0.9% in June 2021 and is 2.1% below its pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Latest data shows Scotland's GDP grew 0.9% in June as restrictions eased over the month, with growth in the services (1.2%) and production (0.5%) sectors ofsetting a fall in construction output (-1.4%). In June, Scotland's GDP was 2.1% below its pre-pandemic level in February 2020, having been 22.8% below in April 2020 during the national lockdown.

Source: Scottish Government

Methodology: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest and most widely used measure of economic activity. Changes in GDP over time are estimated using information about the output of each industry across all sectors of the economy. Monthly GDP estimates are experimental statistics, which means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty. Further information can be found at www.gov.scot/gdp.

### Unemployment

Scotland's unemployment rate was 4.3% in April - June.

In April - June, Scotland's unemployment rate was 4.3%. This was down 0.1 percentage points over the quarter and down 0.3 percentage points over the year.

The unemployment rate continues to compare well against historical trends, however the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme supported around 6% of employments at the end of June 2021. Based on the Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate for women is 3.7% and for men is 4.9%. Based on the Annual Population Survey, the unemployment rate for young people (16 to 24 years) is 12.5% in Apr 2020-Mar 2021.

Source: Scottish Government

Methodology: The unemployment rate shows the proportion of the economically active population (age 16 years +) who are unemployed (seeking work and available to work).

### Claimant Count

Scotland's Claimant Count was 176,000 in July.

In July, Scotland's Claimant Count was 176,000. This decreased by 1.8% over the month and is 55% higher than in February 2020.

The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming benefit principally for the reason of being unemployed. In July, Scotland's claimant count was 176,000.

Source: Scottish Government

Methodology: The Claimant Count data is experimental and includes those claimants of Universal Credit who are required to search for work, i.e. within the Searching for Work conditionality regime as defined by the Department for Work & Pensions, as well as all Jobseekers Allowance claimants.