Unemployment Model Based Estimates
type: Dataset
conforms to: http://mlcommons.org/croissant/1.0
contact point: ContactPoint
date modified: 2026-08-12T15:10:56.591740
date published: 2026-08-12T15:10:00.965084
description: The model-based estimate produces a single-best estimate for total unemployment for the local area. The Annual Population Survey (APS), on which these estimates are based is published quarterly, but with each publication including data for one year. The four publications per year cover the periods January to December; April to March of the following year; July to June of the following year; and October to September of the following year. Three quarters of the survey observations included in one publication will therefore be included in the following publication. The model-based unemployment estimates (and the direct APS survey estimates) represent valid estimates for the period to which they refer but because, as explained above, estimates from consecutive quarters are based on common observations they are not independent, and should not be used for comparisons over time. Comparisons over time for say the latest annual estimate should only be made using estimates for the same period a year earlier, as the data for these two periods will not include any common observations. Estimates of economic activity status are usually taken from surveys of individuals (nationally from the Labour Force Survey, and from the annual Labour Force Survey or Annual Population Survey for smaller areas). However for most local areas, even the Annual Population Survey does not have a sufficiently large sample to provide precise estimates of unemployment. For this reason a statistical model has been developed to improve the annual LFS/APS estimates of unemployment, for small areas, by using supplementary information, mainly the numbers of claimants of Jobseekers' Allowance (the claimant count). The claimant count is not a measure of unemployment as not all unemployed people are eligible for the benefit (and some legitimate claimants would be considered to be employed under the International Labour Organization definition of employment). However, the claimant count does have a high positive…
accuracy: Where the estimate is unreliable (i.e. the group sample size is 3-9 or estimate is less than 500) or the group sample size is zero or disclosive (0-2), the data has been removed.
comment: Unemployment Model Based Estimates (level and rate)
completeness: Statistics from the APS are presented in reports and spreadsheets available on the [Scottish Goverment's website](https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/).
confidentiality: This dataset does not contain any sensitive or personal information.
consistency: Note that this data is not seasonally adjusted and comparisons should only be made with the same quarter across years. The Scottish Government publishes reports which present [analysis on the labour market at Scotland and sub-Scotland levels](https://www.gov.scot/collections/labour-market-statistics/).
geographical coverage: S92
geographical coverage: S12
license id: uk-ogl
next update: 2022-04-01
quality management: Details on the [methodology and quality assurance of Annual Population Survey data](https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/methodologies/annualpopulationsurveyapsqmi) can be found on the ONS website.
reference period: PeriodOfTime
  end date: 2021
  start date: 2004
timeliness: This dataset is updated quarterly.
uniqueness: Not assessed
update frequency: annual
validity: The Annual Population Survey (APS) combines results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the English, Welsh and Scottish Labour Force Survey boosts increasing the sample size in Scotland, which means the APS can provide more robust labour market estimates compared to the main Labour Force Survey, for local areas and smaller groups of the population.
will be updated: true
included in data catalog: CKAN
keywords: Economic Activity, Benefits and Tax Credits
license: https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
record set: records

Scottish Government
type: Organization
contact point: ContactPoint
  contact type: customer service

GeographyType
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data type: Text
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unemployment-model-based-estimates.csv
type: FileObject
description: Data file for Unemployment Model Based Estimates
comment: Unemployment Model Based Estimates (level and rate)
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encoding format: CSV

GeographyName
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GeographyCode
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Measurement
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Value
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Units
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DateCode
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data type: Text
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