Population Projections (2022-based)
Population projections for Scotland, based on 2022 mid-year population estimates.
Data
Population Projections (2022-based)
Description
The 2022-based national population projections are based on the estimated population at 30 June 2022 and a set of demographic assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration based on analysis of past trends and expert advice. Given the uncertainty in demographic behaviour, additional variant projections are also produced. These variants are produced in the same way as the principal projection but use alternative plausible assumptions.
The national population projections are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of National Records of Scotland (NRS). This ensures that the projections for Scotland are consistent and comparable with those for the other constituent countries of the United Kingdom.
These projections are the first set based on Scotland's Census 2022. We focus on the 25 year to mid-2047; however, projections are available for a 100-year period. Projections become less certain the further into the future they go.
Single year of age population projections data for Scotland are available on the NRS website for up to mid-2047, and the ONS website up to mid-2122.
Metadata
| Theme | Population |
|---|---|
| Organisation | National Records of Scotland |
| License | UK Open Government Licence (OGL) |
| Published | |
| Last updated | |
| Update frequency | annual |
| Reference period | 2022 to 2047 |
| Geographic coverage | Country |
| Contact | population.migration@nrscotland.gov.uk |
Data quality
Completeness
It is the policy of the National Records of Scotland to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the NRS website.
Uniqueness
Not assessed
Consistency
- Coherence - The national population projections are produced on a consistent basis across the UK.
* Comparability - Population projections for Scotland are comparable with national projections for other countries within the UK. They may not be directly comparable with projections for non-UK countries due to differing methodologies underlying fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. Non-UK projections are also based on estimates of the population at 1 January, whereas NRS and ONS projections are based on estimates of the population at 30 June (mid-year).
Timeliness
National population projections for Scotland are published on the same day as the national population projections for the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Validity
The projections are widely used in areas such as planning of public services, resource allocation, understanding potential demand for health services including the impact of our ageing population, and teacher workforce planning. They are also used by the UK Government, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Scottish Fiscal Commission to inform upcoming budgets and fiscal forecasts.
Accuracy
Population projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The population projections are trend-based. They are, therefore, not policy-based forecasts of what the government expects to happen. Many social and economic factors influence population change, including policies adopted by both central and local government. The relationships between the various factors are complex and largely unknown.
The reliability of projections decreases over time, and projections tend to be less reliable in periods of rapid change. Projections for areas with small populations tend to be less reliable than those for areas with large populations. Projections of the number of adults (particularly older people) are usually more reliable than those for children because they are based on people who are already living in Scotland. Migration tends to fluctuate more than fertility or mortality, and it is harder to measure, so there tends to be more uncertainty around the migration figures.
Quality management
More information on the method used to produce these projections is available on the ONS website.
More information on the variant projections can also be found on the ONS website.
Additional details
Revisions
Projections are not subject to scheduled revision. Revisions and corrections to previously published statistics are dealt with in accordance with the Scottish Government Statistician Group corporate policy statement on revisions and corrections - a copy of which is available on the Scottish Government website.
Confidentiality policy
This dataset does not contain any sensitive or personal information.