National Records of Scotland
type: Organization
contact point: ContactPoint
  contact type: customer service

population-projections-2020-based-updated.csv
type: DataDownload
comment: Interim population projections for Scotland, based on 2020 population estimates
dictionary: Column
  column: DateCode
  type: int
dictionary: Column
  column: Units
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Age
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyType
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Measurement
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Population Projection Variant
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Sex
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Value
  type: int
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyName
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyCode
  type: text
description: Data file for Population Projections (2020-based) [updated]
encoding format: CSV

Population Projections (2020-based) [updated]
type: Dataset
accuracy: The assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration are based on analysis of past trends. For the national population projections, the final decisions on assumptions take into account the views of a range of groups who are consulted including a UK expert advisory panel and key users in Scotland. There is limited accuracy of migration estimates as there is no comprehensive registration system in the UK. More information can be found in the [Population Projections section](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland) of the NRS website.
comment: Interim population projections for Scotland, based on 2020 population estimates
completeness: It is the policy of the National Records of Scotland to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the [Accessibility section](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/accessibility) of the NRS website.
confidentiality: This dataset does not contain any sensitive or personal information.
consistency: *Coherence* - Further information on the population projections can be found in the [Population Projections](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections) section on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website. *Comparability* - Population projections of Scotland are comparable with national projections for other countries within the UK and Europe.
geographical coverage: S92
license id: uk-ogl
quality management: Details of the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the [methodology section](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2020-based/2020-based-unrevised) of the National Statistics publication on the NRS website. More information on the methods used to produce these projections is also available from the [National Population Projections Quality and Methodology report](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsqmi) on the ONS Website. *Please note that the international migration variant data are not National Statistics but have been developed in a similar way to the normal production process including the use of expert advisory feedback.\u00A0 The latest experimental estimates [Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2022](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2022) have been used for this release. Assumptions for cross-border migration (migration between UK constituent countries), fertility and mortality have been held constant and are those used in the 2020-based interim NPP release (principal projection). The mid-year population estimate for mid-2020 is used as the start point of the projection. Information on the data sources used to produce the 2020-based interim NPPs can be found in [ONS' background, methodology and assumption setting article](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsbackgroundmethodologyandassumptionsetting2020basedinterim).*
reference period: PeriodOfTime
  end date: 2045-01-01T00:00:00
  start date: 2020-01-01T00:00:00
timeliness: National projections for Scotland are published on the same day as the national population projections for the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
uniqueness: Not assessed
update frequency: annual
validity: The primary purpose of NRS population projections is to provide estimates of the future population of Scotland as a common framework for use in resource allocation and planning in a number of different fields such as education and health, for environmental scanning and for land-use and transport models. These projections are used as inputs to Grant Aided Expenditure (GAE) funding allocations and looking at the implications of an ageing population. They are also used for making comparisons between areas and as inputs to the National Records of Scotland household projections.
will be updated: false
contact point: ContactPoint
date modified: 2026-08-13T15:34:49.707157
date published: 2026-08-13T15:33:46.812795
description: 2020-based population projections for Scotland by sex and age group. *Please note that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have produced new variant population projections using new international migration assumptions. They were published on 27 January 2023. New assumptions were developed following the latest expert advice and latest provisional estimates of international migration.* *ONS and NRS advise users to use these new [2020-based interim national population projections: estimated international migration variant](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/2020basedinterimnationalpopulationprojectionsyearendingjune2022estimatedinternationalmigrationvariant) (which include figures for Scotland) instead of the [2020-based interim national population projections](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2020-based/2020-based-unrevised) published in January 2022. This is because this release includes more recent estimates of international migration in the averages used to calculate the short- and long-term international migration assumptions.* *More information on the impact and key changes in the latest update (international migration variant) can be found on the [NRS website](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2020-based).* A projection is a calculation showing what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends and do not take account of any future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives but may reflect the past impact of policy and economic changes. These projections are not, therefore, forecasts of what the government expects to happen based on policy. The projections are based on mid-y…
included in data catalog: CKAN
keywords: Population
license: https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/