Population Projections (2020-based) [updated]

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Not assessed

Coherence - Further information on the population projections can be found in the Population Projections section on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website.

Comparability - Population projections of Scotland are comparable with national projections for other countries within the UK and Europe.

National projections for Scotland are published on the same day as the national population projections for the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The primary purpose of NRS population projections is to provide estimates of the future population of Scotland as a common framework for use in resource allocation and planning in a number of different fields such as education and health, for environmental scanning and for land-use and transport models. These projections are used as inputs to Grant Aided Expenditure (GAE) funding allocations and looking at the implications of an ageing population. They are also used for making comparisons between areas and as inputs to the National Records of Scotland household projections.

The assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration are based on analysis of past trends.

For the national population projections, the final decisions on assumptions take into account the views of a range of groups who are consulted including a UK expert advisory panel and key users in Scotland.

There is limited accuracy of migration estimates as there is no comprehensive registration system in the UK.

More information can be found in the Population Projections section of the NRS website.

Details of the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the methodology section of the National Statistics publication on the NRS website. More information on the methods used to produce these projections is also available from the National Population Projections Quality and Methodology report on the ONS Website.

Please note that the international migration variant data are not National Statistics but have been developed in a similar way to the normal production process including the use of expert advisory feedback.\u00A0 The latest experimental estimates Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2022 have been used for this release. Assumptions for cross-border migration (migration between UK constituent countries), fertility and mortality have been held constant and are those used in the 2020-based interim NPP release (principal projection).
The mid-year population estimate for mid-2020 is used as the start point of the projection. Information on the data sources used to produce the 2020-based interim NPPs can be found in ONS' background, methodology and assumption setting article.

Projections are not subject to scheduled revision. Revisions and corrections to previously published statistics are dealt with in accordance with the Scottish Government Statistician Group corporate policy statement on revisions and corrections - a copy of which is available on the Scottish Government website.

Please note that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have produced new variant population projections using new international migration assumptions. They were published on 27 January 2023 and have been added to this dataset. More information can be found in the datasets on the ONS website.

This dataset does not contain any sensitive or personal information.