Population Projections (2016-based)
type: Dataset
conforms to: http://mlcommons.org/croissant/1.0
contact point: ContactPoint
date modified: 2026-08-13T15:42:43.268608
date published: 2026-08-13T15:41:07.202700
description: 2016-based population projections for Scotland and Scottish areas, by sex and age group. [More up-to-date population projections, based on 2018 population estimates, are available](http://statistics.gov.scot/data/population-projections-2018-based). Please note that the following variants are only available at national level for Scotland: EU migration 150%, EU migration 50%, EU migration Zero, Natural Change Only, Population - High, Population - Low. The rest of the variants are available for all areas. A projection is a calculation showing what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions are based on past trends and do not take account of any future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives but may reflect the past impact of policy and economic changes. These projections are not, therefore, forecasts of what the government expects to happen based on policy. The projections are based on the most recently available mid-year population estimates and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. The principal projection is the main figure. Variant projections are produced to give an indication of the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour. Three additional alternative variants showing what might happen if future levels of EU migration are higher, lower or zero have also been produced for Scotland only. These additional variants do not have National Statistics Status, and the assumptions for these variants have not been subject to the same rigorous quality assurance and assessment process as the other variants. For more information on population statistics, please see the NRS website here: [https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population) Single year of age population projections data for Scotland are available…
accuracy: The assumptions about future patterns in fertility, mortality and migration are based on analysis of past trends. For the national population projections, the final decisions on assumptions take into account the views of a range of groups who are consulted including a UK expert advisory panel and key users in Scotland. The assumptions for the sub-national population projections are also based on past trends and are consistent with the assumptions for the national population projections at Scotland level. There is limited accuracy of migration estimates as there is no comprehensive registration system in the UK. More information can be found in the [Population Projections](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland) section of the NRS website.
comment: Population projections for Scotland and Scottish Areas, based on 2016 population estimates. Please see the Population Projections (2018-based) dataset for the most up-to-date projections.
completeness: It is the policy of the National Records of Scotland to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the [Accessibility section](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/accessibility) of the NRS website.
confidentiality: This dataset does not contain any sensitive or personal information.
consistency: *Coherence* - Further information on the population projections can be found in the [Population Projections](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections) on the National Records of Scotland (NRS) website. *Comparability* - Population projections of Scotland are comparable with national projections for other countries within the UK and Europe. Population projections are also produced for similar small areas in [England](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojectionsforengland/2014basedprojections), by the Office for National Statistics, [Wales](http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/local-authority-population-projections/?lang=en), by the Welsh Government, and [Northern Ireland](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/population/sub-national-population-projections), by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. However, it should be noted that these projections are not directly comparable due to differences in methodology and base years. More information on the similarities and differences in these projections is available in the [subnational population projections across the UK](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/subnationalpopulationprojectionsacrosstheuk) page on the ONS website.
geographical coverage: S12
geographical coverage: S08
geographical coverage: S21
geographical coverage: S11
geographical coverage: S92
license id: uk-ogl
quality management: Details of the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the methodology section of the [National Statistics publication on the NRS website](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-projections/population-projections-scotland/2016-based). More information on the methods used to produce these projections is also available from the [National Population Projections Quality and Methodology report on the ONS Website](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsqmi).
reference period: PeriodOfTime
  end date: 2041
  start date: 2016
timeliness: The most recent mid-year estimate is used as the base year for the projections. National projections for Scotland are published on the same day as the national population projections for the UK produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Sub-national projections are published following the national population projections in October or November. The dates of publications are preannounced on the [Future Publications](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/future-publications) section of the NRS website.
uniqueness: Not assessed
update frequency: annual
validity: The primary purpose of NRS population projections is to provide estimates of the future population of areas in Scotland as a common framework for use in resource allocation and local planning in a number of different fields such as education and health, for environmental scanning and for land-use and transport models. These projections are used as inputs to Grant Aided Expenditure (GAE) funding allocations and looking at the implications of an ageing population. They are also used for making comparisons between areas, as inputs to the National Records of Scotland household projections, and as controls for small area population projections.
will be updated: false
included in data catalog: CKAN
keywords: Population
license: https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
record set: records

National Records of Scotland
type: Organization
contact point: ContactPoint
  contact type: customer service

Sex
type: Field
data type: Text
source:
  extract:
    column: Sex

population-projections.csv
type: FileObject
description: Data file for Population Projections (2016-based)
comment: Population projections for Scotland and Scottish Areas, based on 2016 population estimates. Please see the Population Projections (2018-based) dataset for the most up-to-date projections.
dictionary: Column
  column: Value
  type: int
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyType
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Sex
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyName
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Population Projection Variant
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Units
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: DateCode
  type: int
dictionary: Column
  column: Measurement
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyCode
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Age
  type: text
encoding format: CSV

Value
type: Field
data type: Integer
source:
  extract:
    column: Value

Age
type: Field
data type: Text
source:
  extract:
    column: Age

GeographyName
type: Field
data type: Text
source:
  extract:
    column: GeographyName

DateCode
type: Field
data type: Integer
source:
  extract:
    column: DateCode

GeographyCode
type: Field
data type: Text
source:
  extract:
    column: GeographyCode

Units
type: Field
data type: Text
source:
  extract:
    column: Units

Measurement
type: Field
data type: Text
source:
  extract:
    column: Measurement

GeographyType
type: Field
data type: Text
source:
  extract:
    column: GeographyType

Population Projection Variant
type: Field
data type: Text
source:
  extract:
    column: Population Projection Variant