Household Projections of Average Household Size
type: Dataset
theme: Housing
timeliness: The projections use household estimates from 2018 and 2019. The projections are published as soon as possible after the household estimates become available (3 months later). The projection are considered to be 2018-based as the communal establishment data used are generally only available for 2018 by the time of publication.
validity: Household projections are mainly used for informing council decisions about future housing need and service provision (such as waste collection and community care). They feed into development plans, including assessments of housing need and demand for the future. The projections are also used to help inform policy development and for answering requests for information from Ministers, councils, academics, other organisations and the general public. Household estimates and projections (Scotland and the UK) are used directly and indirectly in the production of certain statistics contained within the [Annual Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS)](http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS) publication and the [Quarterly National Accounts Scotland (QNAS)](https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#gdpquarterlynationalaccounts,scotland(qnas) releases. They are used in QNAS as an auxiliary variable (alongside consumption data) in the production of Household Final Consumption Expenditure estimates by product. In turn, these expenditures inform the GERS publication in estimating revenues associated with consumption (e.g. VAT and duties). Some councils use information from the household projections, such as the proportion of people of each age group living in communal establishments, in producing local projections of future household numbers.
accuracy: The household projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The household projections are trend-based and are not, therefore, policy-based forecasts of what the Government expects to happen. They are based on the population projections and, as a result, assumptions used for the population projections, such as future migration, fertility and mortality, will have an effect on the household projections. The household projections also rely on projecting trends in household formation from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. No forecast is made of future changes that may alter these trends, such as economic and social change, as well as imbalances between housing supply and demand. In addition, projections for small groups are likely to be less reliable that those for larger groups as they are based on data from smaller numbers of people (or households). The uncertainty in the projections increases as they are taken further into the future. The 2018-based household projection report focuses on the 'principal projection', that is the projection based on the assumptions that we think are most likely to occur, but also includes sections on household projections prepared using alternative population projections. These variant projections reflect possible effects of uncertainty in the assumptions made about migration in the population projections. More information can be found in the 'Sources and methods' section of the latest ['Household projections for Scotland'](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2018-based-household-projections).
consistency: Household estimates and projections for other parts of the UK are available from the following sources: * England: [ONS](http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/householdprojectionsforengland/2018based) * Wales: [Welsh Government](https://gov.wales/subnational-household-projections-2018-based) * Northern Ireland: [Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency](http://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/population/household-projections) There are many similarities between the methods used to create the projections for each country, but also some subtle differences. A joint report containing a broad comparison of the household projection methodologies across the UK can be found on [Household projections across the UK: user guide](http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/householdprojectionsacrosstheukuserguide).
uniqueness: Not assessed
completeness: It is the policy of the NRS to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the [NRS website](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/accessibility).
comment: 25 year projection of household size (people per household) for Council Areas, Health Board areas, and National Parks. The data given here is part of the same projection shown in Household Projections, which shows a more detailed breakdown of the projection
update frequency: annual
license id: uk-ogl
confidentiality: -
quality management: Exactly the same methodology and procedures are used to produce all projections and geographies using a carefully checked and tested program. Output is compared to the previous projections to ensure consistency. Consistency between the three projection types is checked to ensure there are no large divergences. Any changes from the previous projections are investigated and ensured they are explainable from trends in the input data. Input datasets are checked for consistency with previous years, and any discrepancies queried with the data supplier.
geographical coverage: S08
geographical coverage: S12
geographical coverage: S21
geographical coverage: S92
will be updated: true
reference period: PeriodOfTime
  start date: 2018
  end date: 2043
next update: 2024-06-01
description: This dataset contains information on the average number of people per household ('average household size') in each council, Health Board, National Park areas and in Scotland from 2018 to 2043. Average household size is calculated using the projected number of people living in private (non-communal) households in an area divided by the number of projected households in this area. Population living in private households are available on the [NRS website](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/household-projections/18/2018-house-proj-source-data-alltabs.xlsx). The [number of projected households](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/household-projections/18/2018-house-proj-fullprinc-alltabs.xlsx) is also available from the same website and in the [open data platform](http://statistics.gov.scot/data/household-projections). For more information on household projections statistics, please see the [NRS website](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2018-based-household-projections) and the [About](http://statistics.gov.scot/data/household-projections) section of the household projections data on [statistics.gov.scot](http://statistics.gov.scot). Household projections are produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) every two years. The method and sources of data used for the 2018-based household projections have changed from those used for the 2016-based projections. Details of the changes and the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the methodology section of the [Household Projections for Scotland (2018-based) publication](http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/household-projections/18/household-proj-18-report.pdf#page=49) on the NRS website. This set of projections covers the period from 2018 to 2043, a projection period of 25 years. The household projections incorporate the latest (2018-based) population projections and the 2018 and 2019 ho…
version notes: nan
issued: 2026-08-13T15:34:20.927223
modified: 2026-08-13T15:35:34.104772
contact point: Organization
contact point: Kind

Housing
type: Concept

National Records of Scotland
type: Agent

household-projections-of-average-household-size.csv
type: Distribution
comment: 25 year projection of household size (people per household) for Council Areas, Health Board areas, and National Parks. The data given here is part of the same projection shown in Household Projections, which shows a more detailed breakdown of the projection
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyCode
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyName
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyType
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: DateCode
  type: int
dictionary: Column
  column: Measurement
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Units
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Value
  type: float
dictionary: Column
  column: Population Projection Variant
  type: text
table schema: Schema
  column: Column
    name: GeographyCode
    datatype: text
  column: Column
    name: GeographyName
    datatype: text
  column: Column
    name: GeographyType
    datatype: text
  column: Column
    name: DateCode
    datatype: int
  column: Column
    name: Measurement
    datatype: text
  column: Column
    name: Units
    datatype: text
  column: Column
    name: Value
    datatype: float
  column: Column
    name: Population Projection Variant
    datatype: text
description: Data file for Household Projections of Average Household Size
format: CSV
access URL: https://admin.data.gov.scot/resource/930cb5aa-642e-46b6-8f83-57d2fcf0a2ab/download
issued: 2026-08-13T15:35:34.115132
modified: 2026-08-13T15:35:34.110928