household-projections.csv
type: Distribution
table schema: Schema
  column: Column
    datatype: text
    name: Measurement
  column: Column
    datatype: int
    name: DateCode
  column: Column
    datatype: text
    name: Units
  column: Column
    datatype: text
    name: Population Projection Variant
  column: Column
    datatype: text
    name: GeographyName
  column: Column
    datatype: text
    name: GeographyType
  column: Column
    datatype: text
    name: Household Type
  column: Column
    datatype: text
    name: Age
  column: Column
    datatype: int
    name: Value
  column: Column
    datatype: text
    name: GeographyCode
access URL: https://admin.data.gov.scot/resource/81468688-0905-4a79-83ea-785d57496f54/download
description: Data file for Household Projections
format: CSV
issued: 2026-08-13T15:54:03.247429
modified: 2026-08-13T15:54:03.242104
comment: 25 year projection of households for Council Areas, Health Board Areas, and National Parks. The data is broken down by the household reference person age and the type of household
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyName
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Units
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Household Type
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyCode
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Population Projection Variant
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: DateCode
  type: int
dictionary: Column
  column: Measurement
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: GeographyType
  type: text
dictionary: Column
  column: Value
  type: int
dictionary: Column
  column: Age
  type: text

Housing
type: Concept

National Records of Scotland
type: Agent

Household Projections
type: Dataset
version notes: nan
contact point: Organization
contact point: Kind
theme: Housing
description: This dataset contains projections of the number of households in Scotland and in each Council, National Park and Health Board area. The projections include breakdowns by type of household and age of household reference person. The projections are trend based. They extrapolate from existing data and do not take into account future effects of changes in legislation or policy. *Age* refers to the age of [household reference person (HRP).](https://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/variables-classification/household-reference-person) *Population Projection Variant* refers to which population model the projection was based on; one with high migration or low migration or the 'principal' model which uses default assumptions about migration. *Household Type* refers to the composition of the household, in terms of numbers of adults and children residing in a given household. Household projections are produced by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) every two years. The method and sources of data used for the 2018-based household projections have changed from those used for the 2016-based projections. Details of the changes and the methodology used to produce these statistics is available in the methodology section of the [Household Projections for Scotland (2018-based) publication](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/household-projections/18/household-proj-18-report.pdf#page=49) on the NRS website. [Summary tables](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/household-projections/18/2018-house-proj-fullprinc-alltabs.xlsx) of the number of projected households obtained using household representative rates (HRR) projected through to 2043 (the principal projection holds the HRRs constant from 2022) has been published in the [NRS website.](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2018-based-household-projections) This additional variant allows us to see the potential effect on household formation …
issued: 2026-08-13T15:52:26.686864
modified: 2026-08-13T15:54:03.234039
accuracy: The household projections have limitations. A projection is a calculation showing what happens if particular assumptions are made. The household projections are trend-based and are not, therefore, policy-based forecasts of what the Government expects to happen. They are based on the population projections and, as a result, assumptions used for the population projections, such as future migration, fertility and mortality, will have an effect on the household projections. The household projections also rely on projecting trends in household formation from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. No forecast is made of future changes that may alter these trends, such as economic and social change, as well as imbalances between housing supply and demand. In addition, projections for small groups are likely to be less reliable that those for larger groups as they are based on data from smaller numbers of people (or households). The uncertainty in the projections increases as they are taken further into the future. The 2018-based household projection report focuses on the 'principal projection', that is the projection based on the assumptions that we think are most likely to occur, but also includes sections on household projections prepared using alternative population projections. These variant projections reflect possible effects of uncertainty in the assumptions made about migration in the population projections. More information can be found in the 'Sources and methods' section of the latest ['Household projections for Scotland'](https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/households/household-projections/2018-based-household-projections).
comment: 25 year projection of households for Council Areas, Health Board Areas, and National Parks. The data is broken down by the household reference person age and the type of household
completeness: It is the policy of the NRS to make its website and products accessible according to published guidelines. More information is available in the Accessibility section of the [NRS website]( https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/accessibility).
confidentiality: -
consistency: Household estimates and projections for other parts of the UK are available from the following sources: * England: [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/householdprojectionsforengland/2018based) * Wales: [Welsh Government](https://gov.wales/subnational-household-projections-2018-based) * Northern Ireland: [Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency](https://www.nisra.gov.uk/statistics/population/household-projections) There are many similarities between the methods used to create the projections for each country, but also some subtle differences. A joint report containing a broad comparison of the household projection methodologies across the UK can be found on [Household projections across the UK: user guide](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/householdprojectionsacrosstheukuserguide).
geographical coverage: S21
geographical coverage: S08
geographical coverage: S92
geographical coverage: S12
license id: uk-ogl
next update: 2024-06-01
quality management: Exactly the same methodology and procedures are used to produce all projections and geographies using a carefully checked and tested program. Output is compared to the previous projection to ensure consistency. Consistency between the three projection types is checked to ensure there are no large divergences. Any changes from the previous projections were investigated and ensured they were explainable from trends in the input data. Input datasets were checked for consistency with previous years, and any discrepancies queried with the data supplier.
reference period: PeriodOfTime
  end date: 2043
  start date: 2018
timeliness: The projections use household estimates from 2018 and 2019. The projections are published as soon as possible after the household estimates become available (3 months later). The projection are considered to be 2018-based as the communal establishment data used are generally only available for 2018 by the time of publication.
uniqueness: Not assessed
update frequency: annual
validity: Household projections are mainly used for informing council decisions about future housing need and service provision (such as waste collection and community care). They feed into development plans, including assessments of housing need and demand for the future. The projections are also used to help inform policy development and for answering requests for information from Ministers, councils, academics, other organisations and the general public. Household estimates and projections (Scotland and the UK) are used directly and indirectly in the production of certain statistics contained within the [Annual Government Expenditure and Revenues Scotland (GERS)](http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS) publication and the [Quarterly National Accounts Scotland (QNAS)](https://www.gov.scot/collections/economy-statistics/#gdpquarterlynationalaccounts,scotland(qnas) releases. They are used in QNAS as an auxiliary variable (alongside consumption data) in the production of Household Final Consumption Expenditure estimates by product. In turn, these expenditures inform the GERS publication in estimating revenues associated with consumption (e.g. VAT and duties). Some councils use information from the household projections, such as the proportion of people of each age group living in communal establishments, in producing local projections of future household numbers.
will be updated: true